With each passing day, new geopolitical crises emerge and cause the risk market to price negatively, but even so, cryptocurrencies remain unshakable. Analysts use technical analysis to project the future of the main cryptocurrency but opinions differ on whether it is bullish or bearish. Check out what TradingView analysts think.
The BTCUSD chart is currently in a bearish move after having its bullish structure break attempt initially rejected. I believe this price drop was a new attempt to capture liquidity within the discount region, possibly setting the stage for a new attempt to break the bullish structure.
It is important to consider that the longer and how many times the price tries to break a turning point level, the weaker that level becomes and the closer we are to a structure break. The underlying reasoning remains valid in price analysis until there is a macro-level structure breakdown.
It is possible that this week we will see the cryptocurrency reach new higher levels as part of a last exhaustion movement before a possible devaluation of the asset. (See full analysis).
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On the AAVE/USDT weekly chart, we are observing a breakout pattern, indicating that the price is currently in a contraction phase that will likely be followed by an expansion.
On the daily chart, the price is in a narrow ascending channel. This means there are up to three bearish bars followed by a resumption or pause in the upward movement. However, it is important to note that these three bullish pulls could signal the first possibility of a sideways period on the daily chart. Furthermore, the renewal of the previous low may also indicate a possible change in structure, suggesting selling opportunities.
On the 60-minute chart, there was the formation of a “wedge bottom” that already fulfilled the premise of two bullish legs and generated a new “wedge,” this time of the “wedge top” type. This resulted in a lower double top. In the same period, there is also a “sell setup” based on the MM20 average. It is worth noting that there has not yet been any close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last bearish leg.
On the 15-minute chart, there is also a “sell setup” based on the average gap. Furthermore, it is possible to identify the formation of the “wedge top.” The possibility of two bearish legs occurring for this “wedge” will occur if there is a renewal of the low of the marked inflection point. This technical analysis is based on approaches from Al Brooks and classical technical analysis. (See PivotChart).
In 2023, the asset showed an upward movement consisting of 5 impulsive waves. However, starting in July, a three-part corrective movement, known as ABC, began.
The first part of this corrective movement was wave A, which consisted of 5 corrective waves. This pattern suggests that the correction has not yet completed and that we are currently in a B wave, which, in my analysis, has not yet reached its end. This means there could be a subsequent C wave, according to Elliott theory, which could result in a significant drop in prices, aiming to reach a range of approximately $18,000 to $19,000.
It is worth noting that we are also observing an OCO (Shoulder-Head-Shoulder) pattern, which is a graphic reversal figure. The target of this pattern coincides with the mentioned zones, which are the 50% and 61% retracement levels from the previous high.
As I mentioned in my previous studies, the next quarter promises to be crucial. This is because, in April 2024, the Bitcoin Halving will take place, and in November there will be presidential elections in the United States. The theory that underlies this analysis is called Presidential Theory and can be studied by those interested in deepening their knowledge in this area. (See more about Bitcoin).
The USDT dominance asset is currently showing a bullish continuation chart pattern on the weekly chart. This pattern suggests the possibility of a decline in Bitcoin and altcoin prices.
This can be attributed to adverse scenarios in which investors seek greater security, leading to an increase in dollarization. At these times, investors may prefer to hold their positions in USDT (Tether), a cryptocurrency that is designed to be pegged against the US dollar, rather than holding more volatile assets such as Bitcoin and other altcoins.
Therefore, the increase in USDT dominance could be an indication that investors are moving towards more stable assets in search of safety amid an uncertain or volatile economic environment. This analysis may be relevant for those who want to understand market trends and make informed investment decisions. (See BTCUSDt chart).
Disclaimer: The analyzes presented here are only studies. They are not investment recommendations, neither buying nor selling, nor do they reflect the opinion of the media vehicle in which they are being published. These are studies aimed at people with knowledge and experience in the financial market.
Our Authors: Isa Br, Crypto Costa Coin and Mazolaa.