Market has no hope that SEC will approve Ethereum ETF in cash

According to a bet on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the probability of a spot Ethereum ETF (exchange-traded fund) receiving approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently just 7%.

This prediction began in January with a 76% probability of approval. But the percentage has plummeted by 91% in the last three months. Ahead of the mass approvals of 11 Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, several companies submitted proposals for ETH ETFs. The list of companies includes, for example, companies such as Vaneck, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale and Invesco.

Grayscale is making another attempt to convert its current Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into a spot ETF. There were initially high expectations for the SEC to approve an ETH ETF following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. But currently it seems that the general public is skeptical about its achievement.

“I believe there is no chance of the current SEC approving an ETH ETF… just issued a Wells Warning to Robinhood… Looks like Gensler is preparing to claim it is a security,” one individual posted on the social media platform X.

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor also sees no possibility of an ETH ETF being approved. Speaking at the Bitcoin for Corporations segment of the MicroStrategy World 2024 event in Las Vegas, Saylor expressed that none of the altcoins would ever be included in a spot ETF.

Ethereum ETF

On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the outlook looks bleak. Prediction markets like Polymarket are often recognized for their ability to offer live predictive insights derived from holders.

In January, Polymarket’s bet titled “Will an Ethereum ETF be approved by May 31st?” indicated a 76% probability of an ETH ETF being approved by the US securities regulator.

Currently, the odds have shrunk to just 7% with just three weeks left in the month. If the SEC does not approve an ETH-based ETF by May 31, 2024, at 11:59:59 PM, the market will be settled as “no.” Polymarket also offers a bet for June 30th, currently giving a 9% chance of approval.

The May 31 bet has a valuation of nearly $5 million. Meanwhile, the June 30 bet stands at just $392,279. As the deadline for the US SEC’s decision on an ETH ETF approaches, the drop in market confidence reflects broader uncertainty in the regulatory landscape for crypto assets.