Bloomberg analysts raise odds of Ethereum ETF approval to 75%

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked ETH ETF applicants to update their 19-b4 filings, sparking a surge in optimism about potential Ethereum ETF approvals. According to multiple sources, including FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terret, the SEC has instructed issuers to review these filings, indicating a possible breakthrough in the acceptance of Ethereum ETFs.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggested on May 20 that the SEC could take a different stance than expected and not deny pending applications. Balchunas mentioned Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, who said the SEC could approve 19-b4 exchange listing rules while delaying its decision on S-1 registration statements.

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart added that he and Balchunas have heard from multiple sources that new filings are expected to emerge in the coming days. This reinforces the expectation of positive progress.

The odds of approval for Ethereum ETFs, according to Balchunas and Seyffart, have been upgraded to 75%, in contrast to previous predictions of 25% to 30%. Balchunas highlighted that the issue has become “increasingly political,” especially in a US election year, as suggested by Coinbase research analyst David Han.

Ethereum ETF Approval in Stake

According to Han, the SEC’s decision may be influenced by the political context, an opinion that Balchunas initially classified as a “risk-free public relations move.”

Ryan Sean Adams, founder of Bankless, supported this view. He agrees that political pressure during election years could impact ETF approvals. However, not everyone is optimistic. Ron Hammond, for example, Director of Government Relations at the Blockchain Association, commented that many believe the SEC could still deny applications based on political indicators and comments from issuers.

The deadlines for these decisions are approaching. The SEC is expected to rule on VanEck’s proposal for a spot Ethereum ETF on May 23, but could announce decisions on multiple applications simultaneously. Prediction market Polymarket suggests a 10% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF will receive approval by the end of May.

These developments coincide with a significant increase in Ethereum prices. The price of ETH rose 20% in 24 hours, with most of these gains coming within two hours of Balchunas’ announcement. The overall cryptocurrency market rose 6.7% over the same period, while Bitcoin recorded a 5.2% increase.