The month of September is historically bad for Bitcoin (BTC) and this year is no different. Throughout this month, the largest cryptocurrency on the market fluctuated between US$25,000 and US$27,000 without much volatility. But that could change in the last quarter of this year.
The last quarter of the year is usually better for cryptocurrencies, especially BTC, in terms of performance and appreciation.
Over the past nine years, the market’s largest cryptocurrency has recorded an average return of more than 35%, according to the latest report from cryptocurrency services provider Matrixport.
BTC could rise in the next quarter
Naturally, past returns do not guarantee future returns, but if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach the US$37,000 mark by the end of the year. In other words, something around R$180,000 in reais.
If the optimistic projection is confirmed, this will be the highest price recorded by BTC this year. The highest the cryptocurrency reached this year was US$31,440, in July, after BlackRock sent a request to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF; request that has not yet been analyzed by the regulator.
As Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, highlighted in the report, the month of October is notably strong for Bitcoin. In seven of the last nine years, BTC has averaged positive returns of 20%.
Furthermore, Matrixport technical analysis shows that Bitcoin recently displayed a new breakout signal, which indicates a rally is on the way. In the last ten times this model has been activated, its price has increased by an average of more than 9% in a short period. If this happens in the near future, the price of Bitcoin could reach US$29,500.
SEC Rulings on Bitcoin ETFs
Another potential catalyst in October highlighted by Matrixport is the second deadline for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) registrations. Next month, the SEC will have to announce or postpone its decision to approve these ETFs.
In August, as reported by CriptoFácil, the regulator delayed decisions on whether or not to approve requests for spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, VanEck, WisdomTree, Valkyrie.
The SEC has postponed decisions on Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF until at least October 17. Meanwhile, the decision on the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund has been postponed until at least October 19th.