Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at VanEck, recently clarified speculation surrounding the launch of the firm’s Solana spot ETF, tying its chances to the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election. According to Sigel, VanEck’s bet on the Solana ETF appears to be aligned with a potential victory for Donald Trump, whose policies could favor the regulatory environment for crypto assets.

The ETF’s application deadline is set for March 2025, indicating that VanEck is strategically positioning its launch after the November 2024 presidential election. When asked about this connection, Sigel was blunt, stating, “I can confirm.”

Analysts note that the likelihood of new crypto ETFs being approved is extremely low under the current Joe Biden administration, but could improve with the election of Trump, who would likely appoint a new chairman for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), replacing the current one, Gary Gensler.

Another challenge facing VanEck and others seeking approval for spot ETFs is the lack of a Solana futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Traditionally, the existence of futures is seen as a prerequisite for regulatory approval, as was the case with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, Grayscale argued in a lawsuit against the SEC that the surveillance sharing agreements (SSA) governing Bitcoin futures could be adapted for spot ETFs, providing sufficient measures to combat fraud and other malpractices.

The regulatory landscape for crypto ETFs remains complex, as highlighted by recent SEC lawsuits against platforms such as Coinbase and Kraken, further complicating the implementation of SSAs among exchanges and ETF issuers. Bloomberg and other analysts have acknowledged that while a robust SSA may be sufficient to meet regulatory requirements, VanEck’s strategy will depend significantly on a change in SEC leadership and/or legislative interventions.

At the time of publication, the price of SOL was quoted at US$ 147.04 with a drop of 1% in the last 24 hours.


The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any person mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading cryptocurrencies carries a risk of financial loss.


Leave a Reply