Prediction markets indicate that Joe Biden, current president of the United States, will probably win the popular vote in the next election, but with no guarantee of re-election. According to trading on the Polymarket platform, Biden’s “yes” shares are trading at 56 cents, suggesting a 56% probability of him winning the popular vote. This bet, if confirmed, will pay out $1 in USDC stablecoin per share.

On the other hand, Donald Trump, who defied expectations by winning the presidency in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, appears to have a solid 36% chance of winning the popular vote, according to the most recent data. However, he emerges as the clear favorite in the race for president, with a 57% chance of winning, against 35% for Biden, in Polymarket’s largest betting market, which has already generated a record of US$182 million.

“If the Polymarket bettors are right and Trump wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote, ‘Not My President’ rallies will come back into fashion,” comments a political analyst, reflecting on the peculiarities of the American electoral system.

Interestingly, the question of whether “Biden will accept crypto donations until Friday?” was decisively denied by the president’s campaign, despite initial odds of 48%. The market closed with a decisive “no” on June 21, after the campaign confirmed it would not make such an announcement.

Additionally, rumors about the participation of Barron Trump, the former president’s son, in the development of the Solana-based DJT token caused a frenzy on social media and discussion forums. However, a Polymarket contract on this issue was resolved to “no,” despite it being disputed and currently under final review.

The pending decision by Polymarket traders reveals that only 19% still believe in the veracity of the claim, a significant drop from the 60% peak observed previously. This market is the second largest by crypto-related volume on the platform.


The views and opinions expressed by the author, or anyone mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice. Investing or trading cryptocurrencies carries a risk of financial loss.


Leave a Reply