Report suggests US economy peaks in second quarter; Details

 

A recently released report suggested that the US economy will peak in the second quarter of 2024. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase’s weekly market report, shared on July 12, highlighted macroeconomic data that indicates a slowdown in the US economy.

The document mentioned several points related to data on manufacturing, unemployment and domestic demand as a basis for the main argument.

“That said, the macro data has been providing plenty of evidence that the US economy has slowed (ISM manufacturing, unemployment, domestic demand, etc.), which we acknowledge. In fact, we think it’s very likely that the economy peaked in 2Q24 – one reason we think the Fed will cut rates starting September 18 (this month is too early and there’s no meeting in August),” he said.

Furthermore, the report also highlighted that the June CPI print released this week (-0.1% MoM or 3.0% YoY) “came in below the median forecasts of +0.1% and 3.1%, which may support a more dovish bias from the Fed.”

US CPI Data: June Reveals Slowing Inflation, Signals Economic Relief

A new report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a notable trend in June: inflation fell for the first time since 2020, suggesting a slowdown in pressure on consumer prices. This indicator is one of the most closely monitored by economists and investors, as it offers crucial clues about the country’s economic health.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, fell 0.1% from the previous month and rose just 3.0% year-on-year in June. These figures represent a slowdown from steady monthly growth in May and a 3.3% annual increase seen previously. These results beat economists’ projections, which had anticipated a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual gain.

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